These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening- after the previous week's games are complete.
This brief lookahead window offers a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers before the start of the week. So unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five to six figures on a side, you're +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.Įach week of the season, I'll provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines.
Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, indicating that the book feels they've priced the game correctly. The only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line.
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